Jerome model in Utah: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 35.5% for Clinton, and 64.5% for Trump in Utah.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 60.8% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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