Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.0%.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be treated with caution, since they often include substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the best practice is to use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other index models

Clinton currently achieves 53.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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