The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.0%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be treated with caution, since they often include substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the best practice is to use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to other index models
Clinton currently achieves 53.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.