Goucher CollegeGoucher College released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 17 and September 20. The sample size was 514 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't rely too much on the results of an individual poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 69.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 64.9% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's prediction is 5.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.