Results of a new poll conducted by Quinnipiac were circulated on October 12. The poll asked interviewees from Florida for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Florida is traditionally a swing state, where the GOP and the Democrats have often gained similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is considered crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 10 to October 16 among 660 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.8 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. In the most recent Quinnipiac poll on July 11 Clinton obtained only 48.2%, while Trump obtained 51.9%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 51.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Florida. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Florida. This means that the PollyVote is 1.0 point below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is insignificant.