Results of a new poll administered by Fairleigh Dickinson were circulated. The poll asked participants from New Jersey for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Fairleigh Dickinson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 51.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 12 and October 16. The sample size was 579 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.3 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 56.0% for Clinton and 44.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 56.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Jersey. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Fairleigh Dickinson poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 57.6% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.