LA Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
LA Times poll results
The results show that 43.0% of participants indicated that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 11 to October 17. A total of 2983 respondents responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they often include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 48.9% for Clinton and 51.1% for Trump. On October 15 Clinton received 49.4% in the LA Times poll and Trump received only 50.6%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Trump at 46.2% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the LA Times poll Trump's poll average is 4.9 percentage points lower. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.1% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 5.0 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.