Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 2 and September 5. The sample size was 1000 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't put too much trust in the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump. On April 11 Clinton received only 54.6% in the Emerson poll and Trump received 45.5%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 58.4% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is negligible.