Clinton leads in California by 26 points in latest KABC/SurveyUSA poll
By KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who responded, 56.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 13 to October 15, among a random sample of 725 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump. To compare: Only 64.1% was obtained by Clinton in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll on September 28, for Trump this number was 35.9%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California sees Clinton at 62.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 3.2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 61.4% of the two-party vote in California. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 3.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is negligible.
