In the latest update, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will gain 53.9% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.1% for Trump. Polly's component methods widely agree on who will win the election: Five expect a victory for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win.
In contrast to Polly's combined forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.0%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are aggregated polls with a vote share of 53.8% for Clinton. With a vote share of 58.9% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
In comparison to previous elections, the Democrats' forecast of 53.7% in index models is particularly low. The last time the forecast fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. At that time, index models predicted a vote share of 53.3% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.