PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from West Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who responded, 30.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 57.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 29 to May 1, among a random sample of 1201 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-2.8 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 34.5% for Clinton and 65.5% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 61.9% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 3.6 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.