Results of a new poll conducted by Emerson were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Vermont for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of interviewees said that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5 with 600 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is insignificant.