Results of a new poll conducted by Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Tennessee for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt poll results
The results show that 33.0% of respondents indicated to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 19 to October 2 with 1000 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-3.4 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 59.1% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.0 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.