CNN-ORC published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democrats and the GOP have often achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome in that state is regarded critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
CNN-ORC poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of participants intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 50.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 10 to October 15, among a random sample of 744 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they may contain large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 48.5% for Clinton and 51.6% for Trump. To compare: 53.8% was obtained by Clinton in the CNN-ORC poll on March 6, for Trump this result was only 46.2%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 48.6% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, the PollyVote is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.