Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where Democrats and Republicans have historically achieved similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is regarded critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 48.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 10 to October 16 among 624 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 49.5% for Clinton and 50.5% for Trump. In the most recent Quinnipiac poll on August 7 Clinton received only 47.9%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 48.8% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.