Results of a new poll conducted by Christopher Newport Univ.CNU were released. The poll asked interviewees from Virginia for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In Virginia, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Christopher Newport Univ.CNU poll results
The results show that 44.0% of participants said that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 29.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 11 to October 14 with 809 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.6 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they can contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 60.3% for Clinton and 39.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Virginia has Clinton at 56.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.8 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Christopher Newport Univ.CNU poll. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in Virginia. This means that the PollyVote is 7.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is significant.