Results of a new poll administered by Detroit Free Press were released. The poll asked participants from Michigan for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Detroit Free Press poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 1 to October 3 among 600 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be too confident the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 57.0%. In comparison to her numbers in the Detroit Free Press poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Michigan. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is negligible.