Goucher CollegeGoucher College released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
Of those who responded, 58.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 17 to September 20 among 514 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 69.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.8% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 5.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is significant.