OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who replied, 54.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.8% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, Polly's forecast is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is significant.