Louisiana: 10 points lead for Trump in latest JMC Analytics poll
By JMC Analytics released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
Of those who answered the question, 35.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 22 to September 24 among 905 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Louisiana has Trump at 58.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the JMC Analytics poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 58.7% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. That is, Polly's forecast is 2.4 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is insignificant.
