Results of a new national poll administered by UPI/CVOTER were announced. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 7 to October 13 via Internet. A total of 1482 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-2.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.6% for Clinton and 47.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. In comparison to numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.2 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.