Results of a new national poll carried out by UPI/CVOTER were distributed. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was carried out from October 10 to October 16 with 1325 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-2.7 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't focus too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. In the most recent UPI/CVOTER poll on October 13 Clinton obtained 52.6%, while Trump obtained only 47.4%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.8 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.