Monmouth published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Monmouth poll results
The results show that 53.0% of respondents will give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 14 to October 16. A total of 726 respondents responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 56.4% for Clinton and 43.6% for Trump. For comparison: Only 51.6% was gained by Clinton in the Monmouth poll on September 25, for Trump this result was 48.4%.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.6%. This value is 2.8 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 2.4 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is insignificant.