The Issues and Leaders model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 52.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.0%. In comparison, on October 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 52.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be regarded with caution, since they often include large errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the recommended strategy look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results vs. other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.6 percentage points better.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.