Issue-index model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issue-index model is included in the index models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 56.6% for Clinton, and 43.4% for Trump. In comparison, on October 15, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 56.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single index models often contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 3 percentage points lower.

The Issue-index model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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