The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Illinois were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll results
Of those who responded, 53.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to October 2. A total of 865 likely voters responded. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they can incorporate substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 65.4% for Clinton and 34.6% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Illinois polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 59.2%. This value is 6.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Illinois. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 6.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is significant.