NBC News published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
NBC News poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of respondents intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 8 to October 10 with 806 respondents. The sampling error is +/-3.5 points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they can include large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 55.6% for Clinton and 44.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 53.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. In comparison to numbers in the NBC News poll Clinton's poll average is 1.8 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.8 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.