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Clinton in the lead, according to most recent PollyVote forecast


Today, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will end up with 54.0% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.0% for Trump.

Looking at the component methods

Polly's component methods widely agree on who will be elected president: Five forecast a win for Clinton and one forecast that Trump will win.

In contrast to Polly's prediction, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.0%.

Index models predict a vote share of 53.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 59.3% of the vote.

Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 16.3 percentage points.

The econometric models forecast of 50.0% for the candidate of the Democratic party is rather low relative to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2004, when John Kerry ran against George W. Bush. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for John Kerry.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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