Today, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will end up with 54.0% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.0% for Trump.
Looking at the component methods
Polly's component methods widely agree on who will be elected president: Five forecast a win for Clinton and one forecast that Trump will win.
In contrast to Polly's prediction, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.0%.
Index models predict a vote share of 53.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 59.3% of the vote.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 16.3 percentage points.
The econometric models forecast of 50.0% for the candidate of the Democratic party is rather low relative to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2004, when John Kerry ran against George W. Bush. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for John Kerry.