California: Whopping advantage for Clinton in new KABC/SurveyUSA poll
By KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who replied, 59.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 28. A total of 732 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of California polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.7%. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.4% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.
