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California: Whopping advantage for Clinton in new KABC/SurveyUSA poll

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KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
59

Clinton

33

Trump

Of those who replied, 59.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 28. A total of 732 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.

Results compared to other polls

If we look at an average of California polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.7%. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.4% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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