The Big-issue model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.7% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.3%. In comparison, on October 15, Clinton was predicted to win only 51.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single index models, the best practice is to use combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results compared to other index models
An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.
The Big-issue model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.