538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 52.8% for Clinton, and 47.2% for Trump. In comparison, on October 14 Trump was still predicted to collect 47.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.0%. This value is 2.8 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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