Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Tennessee were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt poll results
Of those who responded, 33.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 19 to October 2, among a random sample of 1000 registered voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often include substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.9 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.