The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Illinois were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll results
The results show that 53.0% of participants said that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 27 and October 2. The sample size was 865 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.3 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not rely too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 65.4% for Clinton and 34.6% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Illinois sees Clinton at 59.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 6.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Illinois. That is, the combined PollyVote is 6.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is significant.