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10 points lead for Clinton in latest NBC/WSJ poll

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NBC/WSJ released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

NBC/WSJ poll results
51

Clinton

41

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 51.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 13 via phone. A total of 905 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls should be treated with caution, as they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.4% for Clinton and 44.6% for Trump. In the most recent NBC/WSJ poll on October 10 Clinton received 55.6%, while Trump received only 44.4%.

Results compared to other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.6%. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the NBC/WSJ poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 1.5 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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