Results of a new poll administered by Goucher CollegeGoucher College were published. The poll asked interviewees from Maryland for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
Of those who answered the question, 58.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20, among a random sample of 514 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they often incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland has Clinton at 69.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.8% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the combined PollyVote is 5.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.