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Maryland: Huge lead for Clinton in new OpinionWorks poll


OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

OpinionWorks poll results




Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between August 18 and August 30. The sample size was 754 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.6 points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

Clinton currently runs at 69.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.8% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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