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Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead


The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 52.2% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual index model. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton currently runs at 53.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.5 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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