Gravis published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Florida is traditionally a purple state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have historically won similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is regarded crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Gravis poll results
Of those who answered the question, 46.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 11 to October 13, among a random sample of 1799 registered voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-2.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. For comparison: Only 50.0% was gained by Clinton in the Gravis poll on June 28, for Trump this result was 50.0%.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton is currently at 52.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Florida. Relative to her numbers in the Gravis poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 1.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is insignificant.