Gravis published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Colorado were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Colorado is traditionally a purple state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically achieved similar voter support. This is why the election outcome here is regarded crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Gravis poll results
Of those who answered the question, 44.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 12 to October 13. A total of 1226 registered voters responded. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.0% for Clinton and 47.0% for Trump. In the latest Gravis poll on July 8 Clinton obtained only 51.2%, while Trump obtained 48.8%.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Colorado sees Clinton at 54.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Gravis poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote in Colorado. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.2 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is negligible.