Results of a new poll conducted by Emerson were announced. The poll asked participants from Connecticut for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 1000 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 58.4% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, the PollyVote is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.