As of today, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will collect 53.9% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.1% for Trump.
What the component methods predict
There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.
Contrary to the combined PollyVote, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.0%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 53.7% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 58.6% of the vote.
Trump lost 15.2 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.
The Citizen forecasts forecast of 53.1% for the candidate of the Democratic party is rather high compared to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, expectation polls predicted a vote share of 53.8% for Barack Obama.