CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Nevada is traditionally a battleground state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have historically won similar levels of voter support. Hence, the election outcome here is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 46.0% of respondents will cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 12 to October 14 with 996 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they may contain substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Nevada has Clinton at 51.6% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 1.9 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is negligible.