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Clinton holds narrow lead in latest ABC/Post poll


Results of a new national poll administered by ABC/Post were distributed. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

ABC/Post poll results




Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted via phone from October 10 to October 13, among a random sample of 740 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.7 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Single polls often include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. To compare: Only 51.0% was gained by Clinton in the ABC/Post poll on September 22, for Trump this result was 49.0%.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the ABC/Post poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.8 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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