Results of a new national poll administered by ABC/Post were distributed. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
ABC/Post poll results
Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via phone from October 10 to October 13, among a random sample of 740 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.7 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. To compare: Only 51.0% was gained by Clinton in the ABC/Post poll on September 22, for Trump this result was 49.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the ABC/Post poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.8 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.