NBC News published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
NBC News poll results
According to the results, 51.0% of participants plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 10 to October 13, among a random sample of 905 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.4% for Clinton and 44.6% for Trump. On October 10 Clinton received 55.6% in the NBC News poll and Trump received only 44.4%.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.7%. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the NBC News poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 1.5 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.