The PollyVote team has completed its 11th survey of elections experts to forecast the national vote in the 2016 presidential election. In this survey, conducted between October 13 and 15, and thus after the second debate, 14 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded.
As in the previous round, all respondents expect a Clinton win. However, her lead has widened substantially, to a new record high.
Whereas, in late September, the experts expected that Clinton will win the popular vote by 4 points, the new average forecast is 2.5 percentage points higher, at 54.7% of the two-party vote (or about a 9-point margin). The individual forecasts ranged from 53.3% to 57.4%, with a standard deviation of 1.4 points.
Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely
- Randall Adkins (University of Nebraska Omaha)
- Lonna Rae Atkeson (University of New Mexico)
- John Coleman (University of Minnesota)
- George Edwards (Texas A&M University)
- Keith Gaddie (University of Oklahoma)
- John Geer (Vanderbilt University)
- Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
- Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
- Thomas Patterson (Harvard University)
- Gerald Pomper (Rutgers University)
- David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
- Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
- Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
- Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)