Results of a new national poll carried out by ABC News were distributed. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
ABC News poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of participants said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 13. A total of 740 respondents responded. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they often include substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. On September 22 Clinton obtained only 51.0% in the ABC News poll and Trump obtained 49.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 53.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. Relative to numbers in the ABC News poll Clinton's poll average is 1.6 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.8 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.