Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of interviewees indicated that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5 with 600 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.9 points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump. The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Vermont.