Utah: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead
The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 35.5% for Clinton, and 64.5% for Trump in Utah.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 60.4% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 4.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah.