Texas: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 42.5% for Clinton, and 57.5% for Trump in Texas. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to collect only 39.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, since they often contain substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Texas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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