Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Tennessee were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt poll results
Of those who replied, 33.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 19 to October 2 with 1000 registered voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 59.1% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. Hence, Polly's prediction is 2.0 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.