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Oregon: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 56.1% for Clinton, and 43.9% for Trump in Oregon. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 54.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Oregon. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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